10 Mar This Week’s Swing Trading Round up;10th March 2012
It’s been a particularly good Week to both Day Trade and Swing Trade Forex Pairs and Indices since we have seen a return of much needed volatility to the Markets.
That volatility made for some quite great trading performances but as far as results go, I’ve only really banked the profits from one swing trade whilst the remainder are still open.
Having bought GBP:NZD pre-break out almost as soon as Markets opened last Sunday Night it was refreshing to wake up Monday and see it already making significant progress and my initial target was reached within 36 hours and I couldn’t resist banking the 331 pips profit on offer.
GBP:NZD soon retraced, quite significantly in fact, so on the basis that original analysis still stood I bought it again. 2nd time around it almost instantly rallied 100+ points into profit, but the strength soon died off and the position goes into the Weekend displaying a 136 point loss.
Although this is a very quick analysis on the daily chart it’s kinda what I’m working from right now but I’ll go through a more detailed analysis over the Weekend either here or on my ADVFN forum.
It’s fair to say the negative MACD divergence at last year’s highs pre-empted the sell off.
Looking more recently, MACD printed a lower low whilst Price printed a higher low. Some people automatically call this hidden (positive) divergence but from my point of view it indicates selling pressure was stronger at this higher low than it was at the previous low. That to me suggests eventually we’ll see new lows.
In the shorter term based on this snapshot alone, things look a little more positive. Friday’s candle closed above 20 and 50 MAs having found support on the 20 MA.
The mid week swing high didn’t quite reach the exact resistance area, suggesting another attempt could well be on the cards, and would very likely occur at exactly the same time the 100 MA hits that resistance level.
Therefore, I’m looking for a double top at minimum, and stoploss to trigger on a daily close below the 20 MA.
Other open swing positions are as follows:
1.2854 AUD:NZD Long still open. Possibly out stayed my welcome on this one. It achieved my upside target of 1.3055 (+200), but I hadn’t set a limit order and by the time I logged in it had sold off hard so I held looking for a double top that never materialised. Goes into the Weekend showing +20 pts.
1.4462 GBP:CHF short still open. A trader I respect has a potentially bullish outcome for this pair. I don’t feel comfortable being in the opposite side of the trade to him. Position goes into the Weekend showing +56 pips.
Last night I opened a DOW short at 12,952 based on a 2nd failed test of the now resisting 4 hourly trend line that I posted details of HERE and HERE. This could turn into a swing trade but I’m not too sure just yet. Trade goes into the Weekend showing +21 points.
Not analysed anything in detail just yet, but overall I think my stance remains the same as last Weekend with an overall marginal view of risk-off. With loads of charts showing possible swing set-ups in formation, I’ll go through them and try and get 2 or 3 of the best ones up on the site over the Weekend. I used the same strategy in last Weekend’s analysis and of the 4 favourite swing picks for this Week, all 4 achieved entry targets and initial exit targets where a potential 1000+ pips could have been made were those trades followed to the letter. A couple of them did reverse hard from the initial exit targets so in reality the points banked probably wouldn’t have quite exceeded 1000 pips, and of course, as I didn’t take all of the trades myself I can’t really claim wins for them! Still, not a bad Week at all.
Have a Great Weekend.