13 Oct This Week’s Trading Round-Up; 13th October 2013
With potential volatility likely across most markets over the U.S debt ceiling farce I’ve avoided taking any new swing trades and spent the Week day trading Indices.
The DAX swing long survived the correction but its yet to be seen whether the current rally will run to new highs or, as I suspect, a lower high. Despite the trade being taken across analysis from the Monthly and Weekly time frames, I think if we see a lower high on the Daily chart it would be sensible to bank profits and close the trade. The trade went into the Weekend showing 270 points profit, but who knows what will happen when futures open tonight. So far based on currency futures its a bit of a mixed bag, but I think most indicators are pointing towards a bit of a gap down tonight.
As you may recall I’ve been watching USD:JPY closely for a potential short position and then Citygroup announced a short recommendation from 98.43. This didn’t put me off, but a few days later Goldmans announced a short recommendation from 97.08. Now, when Goldmans make trade recommendations that are in line with my own thinking, I normally scrap the trade idea. So far price has rallied 100 pips since GS’ call, and they’ve since come out and recommended more weight to the short side with a target of sub 87.00. That makes me really suspicious, I mean, they recommended a short targeting 94.00, price then rallies so they re-iterate the recommendation with a new lower target! Like that makes sense!
Anyway the charts I’m mainly looking at are GBP based. GBP:USD currently sits at possible support and confirmation of this may interest me for a long position, GBP:CAD still remains on the consideration list for a re-entry of the previous swing long that I bottle out of, and GBP:CHF could be interesting for a short term long position too. GBP:CHF looks like its possibly forming a bear flag and even if thats the case, I’d expect a 3rd push up from the current price range to complete the bear flag, after which the trade would have to be re-evaluated. Probably too complex to bother with that one but we’ll see.
In the meantime I hope your trading is going well, and once things calm down in the markets I’ll be looking for more swing trades.