30 Jun This Week’s Trading Round-Up; 30th June 2013
Here’s hoping you had a better trading Week than I did!
Despite last Week’s promise to re-enter the EUR:AUD swing short I missed the favoured re-entry level on Monday and beyond that it just kept selling off (around 400 pips in total) with no decent retraces to catch a good entry. Nonetheless on Friday it rallied like hell almost reversing the whole Week’s losses, so I’d have probably ended up back where I started anyway!
No new fresh trades have been taken simply because my personal opinions of where some markets should be heading are not being fully backed up by the technical’s. In particular I think Indices should be selling off from Thursday’s highs and even though they sit lower now the sell off on Friday was hardly decisive. In fact most of it came within the last 30 minutes of the U.S session but being the last trading day of June this may not mean anything at all.
So with no really convincing set-ups on the table I’m going to talk about Indices, specifically DOW, and how July is generally a decisive Month.
There is a statistic for the first trading day of July which is simply that DOW has closed green on 19 of the last 23 occasions.
Another thing about July (which didn’t happen last Year) is that its the most common Month of the Year where major trend changes are initiated.
July 2006 marked the low of the deepest correction seen in Years.
July 2007 marked the high ahead of the deepest correction seen in Years.
July 2008 initiated a 1000 point correction against the 2008 bear market.
July 2009 and July 2010 produced major rallies from levels not seen since.
July 2011 initiated the largest correction seen since the 2009 lows.
So, for July 2013 to be consistent with previous July events, indices need to mark a top not to be seen again for a long time to come, or a new correction low that breaks the 24th June low which again will need to stick for a long time to come.
Hope you are enjoying your Weekend, and I hope its not too long before some decent swing entries become available as I’m really starting to get fed up with my own indecision based on runs of half hearted set-ups we keep seeing!