06 Apr This Week’s Trading Round-Up 6th April 2012
Almost a Week has passed without any new Swing Trading updates from me and I’m very conscious of this but the fact is, I’m still not seeing stuff that really warrants taking a risk on. By all means, there are plenty of set-ups out there and most will probably play out as those I’ve talked about already have, but if I’m too uncertain about a particular set-up I’d rather miss out than take the trade just to end up either making mistakes by being frightened out at the wrong time, or just through just getting it plain wrong. I think that’s why my success rate of those I do take is fairly high.
In being successful I miss out on lots of opportunities that could turn into great winners, but at the same time I’m also cutting out some of those trades that could incur a loss.
I liked EUR:AUD for the box trade short, didn’t take it because it left a gap on the daily chart. I’d like that gap filled before taking a position. CAD:JPY and GBP:USD were quite choppy and that “greyed out” some of the confirmations I wanted to see before committing to swing positions. All 3 of these from the watch list would now be showing fairly decent profits had I taken them, but I just didn’t see everything I wanted to see in order to commit to them. Next Week could be a different story so we’ll see.
The only swing position that was live throughout this Week was the EUR:GBP short. I still very much like the idea of this trade, but when I thought about it logically I decided to close it at 0.8272 for +110 pips profit. I entered this trade when price was right at the top of a 3 Month range. Over the space of a few days it’s sold off quite quickly right to the bottom of that 3 Month range. Remembering the MACD divergence on the daily time frame indicating the possibility that a long term low may already be in place and considering that it hasn’t effectively renewed it’s down trend until the 3 Month price range is broken, then the sensible option was to bank the profits and wait for further confirmation. As difficult as it is to do in reality it’s true that a trade can be re-entered at any time, so for the sake of paying an extra 2 point spread if I decide to re-enter, I’m comfortable with being out of the position for now.
As I mentioned above, there are plenty of nice trading set-ups at the moment but they aren’t necessarily offering confirmation on multiple time frames and that’s why I’ve not posted them here, but being aware that many loyal readers visit this site every day in search of updates that haven’t been forthcoming, I’ll spend a little time this Weekend posting a few things I’m watching even if only to see how they play out.
For as long as I’ve been running this blog I’ve been trying to modify my day trading system in order to apply it to Swing trading and had some success in some respects. One thing I’ve been looking for is a trend change signal on Indices and in particular the DOW because this is the Index I’ve put most effort into due to it’s ability to whipsaw most systems to shreds. The system is very much work in progress and will be for considerable time, but I thought it worth pointing out that a Daily DOW close below 12,900 signifies a trend change. Whether this will be accurate or not I don’t know, but because I have that level as a daily trend change point I decided to enter a long on DOW after today’s Non-Farms numbers from 12,899. Futures closed the day at 12,925 thus the system is not yet short and therefore I felt it worthy of trying the long position. It’s not a swing trade and I wont be placing it in the swing trade log, in fact unless today’s low holds firm I’ll probably close the position out intraday, but going into the Easter Weekend this is the only open position I have.
Hope you have a great long Weekend.