11 Nov Weekly Swing Trading Round Up 11th November 2011
Firstly I want to apologise for the lack of updates throughout this week. I found it very difficult to find anything to trade with confidence and felt it better to avoid posting analysis that was wishy-washy at best.
Of the trades detailed last Weekend I chose to take the NZD:CHF short as it gapped up on Sunday’s open. But it just kept going up and I had absolutely no idea why so decided to stop the position out, after which, of course, it almost instantly completely reversed the whole rally!
I took a long position on DOW on Monday and had only really looked at the potential upside but not really considered the possible downside. It was stopped out on Wednesday on a trailing stop loss below 12,128 where a sell signal triggered over night. By the time I got a chance to analyse the downside potential of that sell signal most of the move had already taken place so I chose to give up on it for the week.
After some weak selling on GBP:JPY I scaled in to the remainder of the swing long position from a couple of weeks back, but within 24 hours that was stopped out for -100 points and the 2nd half of the original swing was stopped out for a +211 point gain.
I have a potentially very bullish possibility being flagged up for GBP:CAD and have taken a tiny position from 1.6269 with very wide stop loss. This is a position I’m willing to sit on for some time and I’m happy to accept whatever drawdown comes with this trade until a point is reached where my analysis is proven wrong. I’ve not posted this analysis yet as it could take considerable time to materialise and the only safe entry is on a confirmed upside break of the current massive trading range. Previous analysis was provided by ematrader and fair play to him for spotting the possibilities so early on. If my analysis on this pair is proven right, there will be a lot of pips to collect from this trade, but I’ve no idea just yet if the big move will be days, Weeks or Months away.
It’s only when the quality of trading set ups available start to diminish that you begin to wish that you took advantage of the many set-ups that were leaking pips all over the place back in September. Back then you could open almost any chart and spot a great trade…just wish I’d taken more of them! American Forex traders lost over $20 million in September and that probably explains why there were so many quality trading set ups available to us as we go about collecting their bread crumbs!
So, it’s been a busy Week analysing, but very little in the way of actual trading for me. If you spotted some of the big potential this week and made money from it, then well done to you, and, well, I’d love to hear how you managed it!
Going forwards there are a few things I’m watching, though I’m not overly confident with them but will post details up over the Weekend. It would be great to be able to update the blog with fantastic trading ideas every day, but if the high probability set-ups aren’t there, then it’s not worth taking them. It only takes 1 great trade every couple of weeks to make a good return on your investment, and therefore I’d like to think it’s worth the wait to visit this site each day and when something new is posted, it’ll be something worth taking note of.
Have a great Weekend.