30 Jun Weekly Swing Trading Round-Up 30th June 2012
It’s been a very tricky Week to analyse new Swing trading set-ups, well, it didn’t start that way but it certainly ended that way.
Following the GBP:CHF analysis detailed here I was quite surprised to see a powerful break out the very next morning and after some indecision I decided to enter a long position on an intraday pull back. Initially the trade appeared to be doing OK and although there were a couple of minor technical reasons why the breakout may not follow through, these did not put me off in the big picture. In the early stages of the trade I was fairly cautious with stop loss positioning setting it 100 points away from the trade entry until I could gauge whether a more precise stop level was required.
Following Thursday night’s overnight Euro news (Europe got ‘saved’ yet again) everything I’d been watching went haywire and so did the GBP:CHF long which was stopped out for -100 points on the huge spike down.
Unfortunately other set-ups on my watch list, all of which I’d planned to post analysis of here, were ruined by this move, namely, EUR:USD (for a short), USD:JPY (for a short) and GBP:NZD (for a long).
I was somewhat grateful I hadn’t entered any of those trades!
Another Swing Set-up I was also going to post details of was for a DOW long from 12,450 support. I entered this trade as a Day Trade to test the water and planned on posting a full analysis once the set-up was confirmed, but within a couple of hours not only did we have confirmation of the move, the move was already well on it’s way towards the exit target which was actually exceeded by the close on Friday night.
Going forwards we are back to square one and need to establish whether Thursday and Friday’s moves across Indices and FX really are trend changes or overreactions within existing trends.
I’m still watching all of the above mentioned swing set-ups, particularly GBP:NZD who’s expected reversal has evaded me thus far and will post up more details as and when the probability looks a little higher.
In the mean time I hop you are having a great Weekend.