Still no new swing trades unfortunately. In fact, at times I've felt like a rabbit in the headlights over the last couple of Weeks while watching huge swings take place across a number of FX pairs, sometimes responding to support and resistance, but other times completely ignoring them. It can be tough when markets go from dull uninteresting trading patterns to full on wild volatility because neither are ideal situations for entering new swing trades, rather, they are more suited to a day trading environment.
As you can probably tell based on the mid-Week updates to the blog, my focus this Week was on day trading the volatility across Indices and this delivered some quite profitable trades.
Although EUR:USD remained top of the watch list for a swing trade on the long side, I found it quite difficult to find a comfortable entry and in the event EUR:USD rallied quite hard albeit through some sudden bursts each of which lasting no more than a few hours. This made the potential swing quite difficult to catch and therefore the trade was missed. EUR:USD now lies bang on resistance so it will remain on the watch-list to see how it copes and from there I can make a decision as to whether I'll trade it, and whether it will be on the long or short side.
Here's the follow on from the DOW charts posted earlier in the Week.
The 61.8% fib level from the April low to May high lies at 14,870 but you'll generally find price will pierce the fib level and ultimately you want to see the hourly candle closing above it.
So to find a more realistic target you need to look to the left of the chart for areas of possible S/R and in this case there is some congestion between 14,830 and 14,855 but nothing that precisely defines support.
The DAX Monthly chart recently broke upwards from a multi Year Ascending triangle.
The break out level 0f approximately 8140 is just about to be re-tested. If support is found the subsequent move could be very interesting. If the current pull back turns out to be a major top then one can only assume this break-out was a fake-out.
Whilst I'm still hunting down my next swing trade, here's a quick look at the Hourly and 4 Hourly DOW charts as seen from my perspective.
I've zoomed right in on this Hourly chart to give a better picture of the triangle breakdown.
Another quiet Week where I found it difficult to spot any high probability set-ups although there were and still are a few I keep going back to.
The AUD:NZD swing long was stopped out on Wednesday for a 180 pip loss. Within hours I became convinced it was going to rebound having taken mine and probably many other stop losses at the max-pain threshold, so I've actually re-entered the trade from 1.1895 and the trade goes into the Weekend showing a 158 pip profit. Defining an upside target is a little tough because its still hard to tell whether this is just a retrace within an ongoing down trend or whether a larger scale reversal is taking place. For now I'd probably guess at the former so the key here is to watch the moving averages for signs of them offering support or resistance and also for signs of them turning up.
We've gone from watching paint dry to seeing quite a bit of volatility over a very short time frame and therefore no new swing trades have been taken, rather the environment has been more suited to day trading albeit with small stakes and wide stops.
My call for retraces across AUD pairs failed quite spectacularly and none of the pairs analysed last Week showed any signs of reversing throughout this Week and I'm currently paying for that with the AUD:NZD swing long teetering near its stop loss levels, currently showing a 120 pip loss.
It has been a Week since my last Blog post and the drop in traffic to the site after 3 or 4 days without an update is fairly significant, but please remember, I only want to talk about stuff that's worth talking about with a view to an imminent trade. I go through many charts each day and do miss a fair few set-ups that turn out to be great ones but don't see a lot of point in talking about great trading set-ups unless I'm prepared to put my own money on them. I'd rather do this than flood the site with advice or recommendations that I simply don't feel absolutely confident about investing my own money into.