100 MA Tag

The increase in volatility across Indices has been quite notable over the last 6 Weeks and this often occurs before a deep correction or a trend change. Therefore here's a few longer term charts of some Indices to look at the bigger picture.


From the outset this looks like a healthy chart. There are historical corrections on DOW and SPX that look identical to this one and on every occasion the Bull markets continued in both Indices. As things stand, shorting this would be a risky place to be.

GBP:CAD is currently trading in the middle of its long term trading range but has shown some potential for a possible move from here to the top of its trading range which may provide a short term swing long set-up. The 4 Hourly chart shows the recent leg down to have found support at the 61.8% fib retrace from the last major swing low to the recent swing high. For a potential long entry this would likely become the area where stop loss positioning should be considered.

I have a bit of a Dilemma. Entered a DOW long today at 12,870 which is currently showing +105 pts. Based on today's price action and the fact we are entering December you have to consider that the base is now in for the Santa rally. At the same time however, we have this stat I posted on the ADVFN forum last night which suggests switching short tonight:

USD:CHF has shown considerable weakness lately so I've been waiting for a suitable retrace to enter into the trend. Although bearish in the main, USD:CHF is entering oversold territory on some time frames so the aim here is really to test the water with a view to covering the position on any sign of incorrect timing.

I've entered a long position in GBP:USD tonight. It's not really a position I'd consider a Swing trade though it may turn into one, it's simply a trade based on historic topping patterns previously seen in Cable. Looking at the 4 hourly time frame we have an area of support (not a precise support level) that should soon

GBP CAD is one pair that really hasn't responded to my previous analysis. I loved the idea of the Daily Ascending Triangle formation that would finally form a break-out from the 12 Month trading range. Thus far, that hasn't come close to materialising and further technical damage has been done since. Because of it's choppy nature and wide spread,