20 MA Tag

Still no new swing trades unfortunately. In fact, at times I've felt like a rabbit in the headlights over the last couple of Weeks while watching huge swings take place across a number of FX pairs, sometimes responding to support and resistance, but other times completely ignoring them. It can be tough when markets go from dull uninteresting trading patterns to full on wild volatility because neither  are ideal situations for entering new swing trades, rather, they are more suited to a day trading environment.

First of all I'd like to apologise for neglecting the blog over the last Week, and to say I appreciate how many of you come back every day to check for new posts. My commitments outside of trading have been immense over the last couple of Weeks and this looks likely to continue for a short while so I've not had the chance to really get into the trades I wanted to take.

Recently I've found it more difficult than ever to establish whether some Markets are showing major trend reversals or sellable/buyable retraces of existing longer term trends. Volumes throughout the Summer across various Markets have been lower than usual and this can make deciphering a trend reversal or retrace even more difficult. There is no holy grail answer, because the action you ultimately take will be based upon

Since the AUD:NZD Swing Long from February never made traction from support, I've been watching the pair and waiting for a retrace to switch short into the trend. For me, the problem with retraces is being confidence that it is indeed a retrace of a macro trend as opposed to a genuine reversal of that trend. The current AUD:NZD chart

It hasn't gone unnoticed by some that I've never posted an AUD:USD analysis. There are some reasons for this, the main one being that I have a bet that AUD:USD will make all time new high's in 2012. The year started great and just a few Week's ago AUD:USD was within 300 pips of delivering my winnings, but the recent correction has concerned me a little. So there we have it, I have an agenda and ultimately a