Still no new swing trades unfortunately. In fact, at times I've felt like a rabbit in the headlights over the last couple of Weeks while watching huge swings take place across a number of FX pairs, sometimes responding to support and resistance, but other times completely ignoring them. It can be tough when markets go from dull uninteresting trading patterns to full on wild volatility because neither are ideal situations for entering new swing trades, rather, they are more suited to a day trading environment.
First of all I'd like to apologise for neglecting the blog over the last Week, and to say I appreciate how many of you come back every day to check for new posts.
My commitments outside of trading have been immense over the last couple of Weeks and this looks likely to continue for a short while so I've not had the chance to really get into the trades I wanted to take.
The Week began with the following thoughts, which were posted on my ADVFN forum:
FTSE / DOW to look for long opportunities over the next day or 2.
EUR:GBP as a potential swing short.
Some Yen Pairs nearing previous swing highs in long term Macro down trends.
Recently I've found it more difficult than ever to establish whether some Markets are showing major trend reversals or sellable/buyable retraces of existing longer term trends.
Volumes throughout the Summer across various Markets have been lower than usual and this can make deciphering a trend reversal or retrace even more difficult.
There is no holy grail answer, because the action you ultimately take will be based upon
Since the AUD:NZD Swing Long from February never made traction from support, I've been watching the pair and waiting for a retrace to switch short into the trend.
For me, the problem with retraces is being confidence that it is indeed a retrace of a macro trend as opposed to a genuine reversal of that trend. The current AUD:NZD chart
As discussed in the Trading Round-Up for Last Week I've got no high probability swing set-ups on the radar right now but promised to talk about a couple of things I'm watching that could offer some shorter term trades and may eventually become solid swing trading candidates.
Since the original EUR:GBP long term analysis detailed in this post it was always my intention to follow it up at the end of the first Quarter in view of a potential long term swing short that could yield a significant devaluation of the Euro against the British Pound.
It hasn't gone unnoticed by some that I've never posted an AUD:USD analysis.
There are some reasons for this, the main one being that I have a bet that AUD:USD will make all time new high's in 2012. The year started great and just a few Week's ago AUD:USD was within 300 pips of delivering my winnings, but the recent correction has concerned me a little.
So there we have it, I have an agenda and ultimately a