50 MA Tag

Following my 3 Week break I feel I'm trading at quite a comfortable and relaxed pace continuing to hold the DAX and GBP:CAD swing long positions. DAX as with other indices seems to be going through a correction at present but its quite clear DAX remains one of the strongest Indices. As you know, my system shorted FTSE back in May on the basis a medium to long term top may be in place. Bearing this in mind it could turn out the DAX Monthly break-out candle is little more than a fake-out and I am concerned that the huge profits seen on that trade will turn to dust, but I'm quite determined to stick to the plan on this one unless I see a real break-down in the technicals.

On scanning through the charts last night shortly after futures opened I selected a number of potential Swing Trade candidates worthy of further analysis. My thoughts, as posted on the ADVFN forum were as follows: AUD:CAD - Potential Swing short GBP:USD  - Swing Long, but not yet, see Weekly chart USD:CHF  - Possible falling wedge, confirmation should come quickly AUD:CHF - At support ready for Swing Long GBP:CHF -  A speculative Swing long if it finds support as it's still not hit my upside target set early last Year CAD:JPY - Maybe a short, but no confirmation yet and my fib levels are a bit hit and miss, but keeping an eye on it. EUR:AUD - For a short term trade on the short side if we can get an hourly close below current support - which is where price is right now (23:00 1st Jan), doubled up with the hourly 200 MA. If both of these fail to support price, should see more downside.

Since the AUD:NZD Swing Long from February never made traction from support, I've been watching the pair and waiting for a retrace to switch short into the trend. For me, the problem with retraces is being confidence that it is indeed a retrace of a macro trend as opposed to a genuine reversal of that trend. The current AUD:NZD chart

There are a few charts I'd like to post ahead of Sunday Night's FX Market Open and I'll start with GBP:NZD If there's one thing that can be said about the New Zealand Dollar, it's been one of the best Trending Forex Pairs during recent times. I say the best, because although other pairs have trended reasonably well, the New Zealand Dollar does so smoothly without huge whipsaws. There are certainly a few NZD pairs that I regret not participating in. For GBP:NZD the 15th Decmember 2011 high down to the 15th February 2012 low captured a 2000 point move with the largest retrace being just 350 points. Nice if you can get it! For the last 3 Weeks price has been forming a possible bowl shaped rounded bottom. I do find these long winded rounded bottoms difficult to trust but the advantage of them being you can usually spot very quickly when your trade is

Waiting for quality Swing Trade entries is like waiting for a bus.... After a long wait for anything remotely swing-able, 5 trades all turn up at once! It's certainly been a busy Week for both swing trading and day trading, but it's time I really took action to cut out the day trading for all but the highest levels of volatility because although it can potentially be more profitable, it generally under-performs over the longer term and is much more