61.8% fib Tag

This Week has not been kind to me! Of all the analysis I've carried out either here or on the ADVFN forum, the results have been almost consistently spot on yet I've still managed to trade poorly by not taking the right trades or through poor trade management. Starting with the open NZD:CHF swing long, I recognised very early on whilst the trade was still in profit that a correction could be close by, but instead of banking profits and waiting for a better entry I chose to hold the position which now shows a loss in excess of 100 pips. The trade could still turn out to be a good one but as soon as uncertainty came into the equation I should have made the decision to trail the stop loss or take the profits whilst they were available. As things stand I'll still hold the trade because no real technical damage has been done to the overall picture so I'll just monitor it on a day by day basis.

First of all I'd like to apologise for neglecting the blog over the last Week, and to say I appreciate how many of you come back every day to check for new posts. My commitments outside of trading have been immense over the last couple of Weeks and this looks likely to continue for a short while so I've not had the chance to really get into the trades I wanted to take.

On following the EUR:GBP Daily chart for some time, the price action over the last couple of Weeks is suggestive of a weakening retrace within an ongoing down trend. The Daily chart showing ideal conditions ahead of a swing short, however, other time frames are not as clear cut. Any decision to enter a swing trade on this pair will probably have to be made through determining the key levels on the particular time frame you wish to trade.

Having scanned through the charts tonight there's a number of charts at inflection points but nothing that I could deem as high probability, or at least high probability with minimal potential draw-down. CAD JPY is one of the more interesting FX pairs but comes with a warning; Different time frames are showing potentially different outcomes, but I do think it's possible there's a short term trade coming up.