channel Tag

Following overnight news that RBNZ have been selling NZD due to their belief its over-valued with a promise to continue intervention as necessary, I decided to take a closer look.


When trading this pair I find MACD very helpful. With regards to the long side, I would analyse as follows. Cons: The Weekly candle is up against the 20 MA, quite a common retrace level in a Weekly trend. Also, my downside target of 1.71 hasn't been achieved yet so I'm not convinced a long term low is in place, but a medium term one could well be.

Following on from this post where probability suggested the small rising channel seen on the 4 Hourly DOW chart would likely break to the downside, we've actually seen the opposite occur. The short position I held at that time was stopped out at break-even and I now hold a long position with stops at break-even. The following charts should just be viewed as information only because they're based only around a short term view, whilst momentum and sentiment can change very quickly. Over the last fortnight my day trading system hasn't really triggered any new long positions, with the last one being at 14,386 on 18th March. However, it has been signalling a number of potential short set-ups but none have actually triggered an entry. This could imply that large players have begun positioning ready for a correction, but until a short signal actually triggers, the best position is to stay flat, or remain long with the trend if you are already positioned long.

Whilst waiting for previously discussed swing trade entries (aside from NZD:CHF where I entered the proposed swing long), here's a snap shot of whats going on with Indices.

FTSE 4 Hourly.

No obvious direction but I'd probably want to wait for the outcome of this descending triangle before taking any position. A descending triangle is usually bearish and a breakdown would offer a technical measured move target of 6135

On following the EUR:GBP Daily chart for some time, the price action over the last couple of Weeks is suggestive of a weakening retrace within an ongoing down trend. The Daily chart showing ideal conditions ahead of a swing short, however, other time frames are not as clear cut. Any decision to enter a swing trade on this pair will probably have to be made through determining the key levels on the particular time frame you wish to trade.

Still trying to work out where Indices are heading next so here's a couple of charts from today showing levels I'm keeping an eye on in the short term. Excuse the mess on the chart, this is my "working" chart so it's constantly evolving with key levels that I'm watching at any particular time. First of all starting at the top of the Hourly chart,

Recently I've found it more difficult than ever to establish whether some Markets are showing major trend reversals or sellable/buyable retraces of existing longer term trends. Volumes throughout the Summer across various Markets have been lower than usual and this can make deciphering a trend reversal or retrace even more difficult. There is no holy grail answer, because the action you ultimately take will be based upon