support Tag

As you'll remember in my previous post of 2 Weeks ago I gave details of 5 currency pairs each demonstrating early stages of set-ups I tend to follow before entering a trade. As things stand I've not entered trades in any of them as yet. For one of them I missed the chance as the move began overnight therefore making the risk/reward ratio a little less favourable, one I forgot about, one didn't play out as expected, one still hasn't finished the set-up and one is very close to decision making time.

You may recall my recent choice to take a risky trade in AUD:NZD whilst waiting for a EUR:GBP set-up to fully play out. Obviously I could have entered both trades but on the basis that the EUR:GBP set-up didn't look quite ready for entry, and the AUD:NZD despite being far riskier did, I just went with the latter. Unfortunately for me, the EUR:GBP short would have been an instant winner, whilst the AUD:NZD one is yet to show a profit of any kind! In fact I widened the stop slightly on the AUD:NZD long on the basis that my original stop placement didn't leave enough breathing space. At present the AUD:NZD position is showing a loss of approximately 140 pips whilst the EUR:GBP trade, had I taken it, would now be showing +180 pips!

Firstly I have to apologise for the lack of updates to the blog. Hopefully you will understand that my life outside of trading has been really testing over the last few Months restricting my ability to spend the time I'd like to spend on analysing and taking new trades. Despite not taking many trades, the set-ups I've posted over the last few Months have in the main played out very well so I hope there's been some inspiration from those!

After a refreshing 3 Week break from the Markets I'm now back and scanning through the charts of which some have surprised me, the strength in the Pound in particular. Last Week I entered a DAX long for which I've only now got the opportunity to talk about. This trade is based on the Monthly chart and I've never before taken a trade on such a large time frame. Furthermore I had to stop myself being influenced by other Indices because none of them support the type of strength I'm seeing on the DAX even as far as to say my system is still short from May on the FTSE Daily chart.

EUR:AUD has had some interesting moves over the last couple of Years, some of which were technically quite simple to catch and resulted in significant moves. The Daily chart below shows historic analysis that I applied to the chart before trading it and you can see that 4 horizontal lines and 2 vertical lines was all it took! To explain further you can see that between October 2010 and December 2011 price remained range bound in the top left of the chart. When it eventually broke down from this range I made the decision not to trade it until price retested the range. After quite a long wait the re-test came in May 2012 as defined by the first red circle. I call such set-ups "Box Trades" simply because price has retested the annotated box that previously contained price before it broke down.

Still no new swing trades unfortunately. In fact, at times I've felt like a rabbit in the headlights over the last couple of Weeks while watching huge swings take place across a number of FX pairs, sometimes responding to support and resistance, but other times completely ignoring them. It can be tough when markets go from dull uninteresting trading patterns to full on wild volatility because neither  are ideal situations for entering new swing trades, rather, they are more suited to a day trading environment.