You may recall my recent choice to take a risky trade in AUD:NZD whilst waiting for a EUR:GBP set-up to fully play out. Obviously I could have entered both trades but on the basis that the EUR:GBP set-up didn't look quite ready for entry, and the AUD:NZD despite being far riskier did, I just went with the latter.
Unfortunately for me, the EUR:GBP short would have been an instant winner, whilst the AUD:NZD one is yet to show a profit of any kind! In fact I widened the stop slightly on the AUD:NZD long on the basis that my original stop placement didn't leave enough breathing space. At present the AUD:NZD position is showing a loss of approximately 140 pips whilst the EUR:GBP trade, had I taken it, would now be showing +180 pips!
Still no new swing trades unfortunately. In fact, at times I've felt like a rabbit in the headlights over the last couple of Weeks while watching huge swings take place across a number of FX pairs, sometimes responding to support and resistance, but other times completely ignoring them. It can be tough when markets go from dull uninteresting trading patterns to full on wild volatility because neither are ideal situations for entering new swing trades, rather, they are more suited to a day trading environment.
Whilst I'm still hunting down my next swing trade, here's a quick look at the Hourly and 4 Hourly DOW charts as seen from my perspective.
I've zoomed right in on this Hourly chart to give a better picture of the triangle breakdown.
This Week has not been kind to me! Of all the analysis I've carried out either here or on the ADVFN forum, the results have been almost consistently spot on yet I've still managed to trade poorly by not taking the right trades or through poor trade management.
Starting with the open NZD:CHF swing long, I recognised very early on whilst the trade was still in profit that a correction could be close by, but instead of banking profits and waiting for a better entry I chose to hold the position which now shows a loss in excess of 100 pips. The trade could still turn out to be a good one but as soon as uncertainty came into the equation I should have made the decision to trail the stop loss or take the profits whilst they were available. As things stand I'll still hold the trade because no real technical damage has been done to the overall picture so I'll just monitor it on a day by day basis.
Whilst waiting for previously discussed swing trade entries (aside from NZD:CHF where I entered the proposed swing long), here's a snap shot of whats going on with Indices.
FTSE 4 Hourly.
No obvious direction but I'd probably want to wait for the outcome of this descending triangle before taking any position. A descending triangle is usually bearish and a breakdown would offer a technical measured move target of 6135
Ok, I admit, I'm jumping at straws here. Just can't see anything ripe for a trade right now and whilst flicking through the chart list this one stuck out.
Can a triangle back test on this large scale be valid as a technical trade?
Whatever may happen, it does look interesting:
A quick mention before I talk about this FTSE chart in case you missed it in the comments section, the USD:CHF swing long is now 90% closed. I've not marked it on the trades log yet simply because I opted to run the last 10% of the trade just to see where it takes me.
With DOW making all time new highs today, I thought I'd take a look at FTSE.
Throughout this Week I've stood by the notion that Indices may be near to forming a top ahead of a decent correction. Although that's speculation I remain committed to monitoring charts ahead of the trading possibility that will follow.
The USD:CHF swing long remains intact but more interesting than the trade itself is the fact that the USD remained strong in general against some of the large one day rallies we've seen across Indices - another potential market topping sign.